DVD vs Video-on-Demand

For Module 4 I viewed Total Recall.  I viewed the movie digitally through Amazon.com’s video-on-demand.

 

The classic example of increasing returns is the Sony Betamax versus JVC VHS video tape format war.  Arguments are divided over why VHS won out.  Some argue that beta’s video quality was superior though others disagree (Scofield, 2003).  While the differences in quality were measurable in the lab, they were irrelevant on home viewing machines.  

©2010 and 2011 SimplyDV Limited (UK)

Initially Beta was the only game in town and offered more movies for rent (Scofield, 2003).  VHS offered more variety and lower price in players and many more rental titles.  The key factor in the VHS victory seems to be recording length (Owen, 2008, Scofield, 2003).  Betamax recording length was only 60 minutes, not long enough to hold a typical feature length movie.  VHS tapes recording length was three hours.  In European markets recoding length was less of an issue (3 hours 35 minutes versus 4 hours) with price playing a key role on the European front (Scofield, 2003).  

© Associated Newspapers Ltd

DVDs versus Blu-ray is a better example of increasing returns than DVDs versus video-on-demand.  They are similar technologies as were Betamax and VHS.  Similarly Blu-ray offers better video and audio quality and special features.  But they are more expensive and fewer titles are available.  You also need a Blu-ray player. DVDs can play in a Blu-ray player, but not vice versa.  With so many downloadable videos now available that can be played anywhere, DVD vs Blu-ray maybe more of a minor skirmish than a war. 

DVDs versus downloadable video does not fall neatly into either increasing returns or red queens.  Though both are used to view video, these are different technologies doing different things.  Download technology, whether you are downloading a book, movie, image, etc., fits better into the disruptive technology category.  It is likely DVDs don’t stand a chance against downloadable video.  Downloadable video can go anywhere and play on a variety of viewing technologies.  Currently there are more titles available on DVD, but that is changing rapidly.  This is evident in the demise of Blockbuster at the sword of Netflix.  Netflix got rid of the hassle of having to drive to the video store.  Without the expense of staffing and maintaining retail stores, Netflix was able to easily morph into downloadable sales (Fou, 2011).  Download technology may bring the extinction of DVDs, but it is also making casualties of, among other things, books and buying software on DVD.  It is a technology that has been and will continue to be a game changer.

Video-on-demand is making DVDs obsolete. It enhances the portability, and ease of viewing videos.  It reduces materials necessary to view and does away with going to a store both which reduce price.  Video-on-demand is a retrieval of stereoscopes and episcopes.  These were handheld viewers people could take anywhere to view images.  Episcopes projected 2-D images on a screen or wall.  Stereoscopes were used to view 3-D images. It is unclear what will be the reversal of video-on-demand.

An Episcope

 ©1999-'de Luikerwaal' 

The Stereoscope

 

References

Owen, D. (2008). The betamx vs VHS format war. Retrieved from: http://www.mediacollege.com/video/format/compare/betamax-vhs.html

Fou, A. (2011). Netflix vs Blockbuster – Perfect example of an industry replaced by a more efficient version of itself. Retrieved from: http://go-digital.net/blog/2011/02/netflix-vs-blockbuster-perfect-example-of-an-industry-replaced-by-a-more-efficient-version-of-itself/

Scofield, J. (2003). Why VHS was better than betamax. The Guardian. Retrieved from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2003/jan/25/comment.comment

Second Life- A Disruptive Technology?

 

A disruptive technology is one that is more efficient than an existing technology and therefore makes that older technology obsolete (Laureate Education, 2009). While some hail Second Life as a disruptive technology (Nuthall, 2008), current data suggest otherwise. While there are over 15 million registered users only about 68,000 are logged on at any one time (Plunkett, 2008).  Most users 54% log on for less than 3 hours a month. Approximately 6% of users log on for 200 hours or more a month. Plunkett (2008) estimates there are probably no more than a couple hundred thousand active users. More recent figures are not much different (Au, 2010). Recent workforce layoffs of 30% at Linden Labs, Second Life's parent company, indicate usage maybe on the decline (Wagner, 2010). Many colleges and businesses are also rethinking their presence on Second Life (Young, 2011, Reuters, 2007). Others also argue that Second Life has not really caught on with educators (Ash, 2011).

Second Life statistics pale in comparison with other disruptive technologies. Thornburg (Laureate Education, 2009) notes that the transistor, which displaced the vacuum tube,  is the cheapest mass manufactured product in the world. A single computer chip contains about 50 million transistors. This means that billions of transistors are manufactured each day just in the making of computer chips (Ward, 2010). Currently there are 5.3 billion mobile phone subscribers (mobiThinking, 2011). That is nearly 80% of the world population. Facebook has 750 million users, 50% of whom log on in a given day. In comparison with these technologies, Second Life just doesn’t make my list as a disruptive technology.

It is very unclear to me what Second Life replaces. Based on the data cited above it is replacing nothing. However, let us pretend it were actually disruptive. What then does it replace? Most users, 51%, use Second Life for ‘adult’ relations, called avaie erotica (Trentham, 2005). Does it replace real world intimate relations? That might mean trouble for the human species if it ever does become a true disruptive technology.

Is it just 3-d chat/texting/Facebook? Even if it is, based on the mobile phone and Facebook data previously citied, Second Life is not in a position to replace any of these.

Second Life has many social benefits. People with disabilities have used to interact with others people (WebUsability, 2004). It has been used in therapies for people with autism and Asperger Syndrome (Lftus, 2005). Second life also has many creative educational uses. This allows anyone anywhere in the world to have and share the same educational experiences.

References

Ash, K. (2011). Second life struggles to catch on with educators. Education Week. Retrieved from: http://www.edweek.org/dd/articles/2011/06/15/03secondlife.h04.html

Au, J.W. (2010, Jan 1). New year survey: How many active second life users with there be in 2010? Retrieved from: http://nwn.blogs.com/2010/01/new-year-survey.htm

Laureate Education, Inc. (2009). Disruptive technologies. [Video]. Retrieved from: http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=5260655&Survey=1&47=5075954&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Loftus, T. (2005, Feb 25). Virtual world teaches real-world skills: Game helps people with Asperger's practice socializing. Retrieved from: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7012645/ns/ health-mental_health/t/virtual-world-teaches-real-world-skills/

mobiThinking. (2011, July). Global mobile statistics 2011. Retrieved from: http://mobithinking. com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats

Nuthall, K. (2008, Jan 20). US: A disruptive technology arrives. Retrieved from: http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20080117162121373

Plunkett, L. (2010). So how many people actually play second life? Retrieved from: http://kotaku.com/5052067/so-how-many-people-actually-play-second-life

Reuters. (2007). Companies rethinking second life strategies. Fox News. Retrieved from: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,301250,00.html

Trentham, C. (2005). Second Life – Creative Expression or Just Virtual Porn? Retrieved from: http://www.gameguidesonline.com/guides/articles/second_life_article.asp
 

Wagner, M, (2010, June, 11). Second life CEO looks to the future after massive layoffs. Computer World. Retrieved from: http://blogs.computerworld.com/16303/second_life_layoffs
 

Ward, J. (2010). Learning about transistors. Retrieved from: http://semiconductormuseum. com/Museum_Index.htm
 

WebUsability. (2004).Wheeling in second life. Retrieved from: http://www.usability. com.au/resources/wheeling-vid.cfm
 

Young, J. (2011). After frustrations in second life, colleges look to new virtual worlds. The Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved from: http://chronicle.com.ezp.waldenulibrary .org/article/After-Frustrations-in-Second/64137/

Rhymes of History

A new technology that recalls something from the past is referred to as a Rhyme of History(Laureate Education, 2009). Modern massive multiple player (MMP) and massive multiple player role playing games (MMPRG) are examples of a Rhyme of History. The precursors to many modern British sports (football, rugby, hurling, shinty, etc.) were often played between towns and sometimes from town to town (RugbyFootbalHistory.com, 2007). Toli, the early form of modern lacrosse, was similar, often with thousands of participants (UGA.edu, 2004).  These games involved hundreds of participants from neighboring towns, some time miles apart. Some of these games were ritualistic in nature and part of militaristic training, similar to MMRPG (SportsKnowHow.com, 2011).

Kelly discusses restructuring, embodiment, and codependency (Kelly, 2007). Restructuring addresses the changing nature of the web. First, the web linked computers to the web; currently it links computers to web pages. Kelly believes the structure will evolve to connecting a computer directly to the data it seeks (Kelly, 2007). He predicts embodiment will occur when all programs connect to the web. These certainly may happen. As the technical aspects of the web are not my forte I cannot comment accurately if these two will happen. Embodiment certainly sounds a lot like cloud computing, so this may already be happening.

Codependency refers to users becoming dependent on the web for information (Kelly, 2007). Kelly believes no one will memorize anything anymore. Codependency can’t completely take hold. It flies in the very nature of the nature brain, a learning organ that can hold immense amounts of data, and needs to so the organism can survive. (Medina, 2008). We have to remember many things to get through life. To have a discussion, argument, debate, etc. requires have lots of data stored in the brain. Such activities also require executive function, the ability of the brain to hold information so that it can be accessed. For example if you are having a debate, your opponent might make a point that immediately brings to mind five points you want to make in your rebuttal. Your brain must hold those five points in working memory while you wait for an opportunity to respond. It also has to hold them in the sequence that you want to bring them up. Any situation where you have to think on the fly can’t succumb to codependency. It would feel hollow and untrue. Suppose you are in a park and you meet someone you find very interesting. You have to be able to hold a lot of information in your brain to have a reasonable conversation with that person. If you are looking to your smart phone every five seconds for an interesting tidbit to converse about that would just ring hollow. Perhaps you need to respond quickly to an emergency. Do you power up and hunt the web for what to do?

 References

Kelly, K. (2007, December). Kevin Kelly on the next 5,000 days of the Web [Speech]. Speech delivered at the EG 2007 Conference, Los Angeles. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

Laureate Education, Inc. (2009). Rhymes of history. [Video]. Retrieved from: http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=5260655&Survey=1&47=5075954&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Medina, J. (2008). Brain rules: 12 principles for surviving and thriving at work, home, and school. Seattle: WA: Pear Press.

RugbyFootbalHistory.com. (2007). Origins of rugby. Retrieved from: http://www.rugby footballhistory.com/originsofrugby.htm

SportsKnowHow.com. (2011). History of lacrosse. Retrieved from: http://www. sportsknowhow.com/lacrosse/history/lacrosse-history.shtml

UGA.edu, (2004). History of toli. Retrieved from: http://www.uga.edu/toli/ information/History.html

Second Life Tetrad

To my group members – HELP! It was challenging developing a tetrad for Second Life.  Not being a resident, as Second Life users are known, and finding the notion of having an identity of my own choosing in a fantasy world odd, probably prejudices me. To this uninitiated Second Life seems a poor replacement for rich, real world interactions. But it is challenging to even define what Second Life is. Most think it is a game, but it is not really popular with gaming because of the low quality graphics (TED Conferences, LLC, 2008). The CEO of Linden Labs, creator of Second Life, Rod Humble describes it as a shared creativity tool (Hindman, 2011).

Most frequent users are between 30-60 (TED Conferences, LLC, 2008). Avatars though tend to be 20ish looking. Does it then replace real-world interactions with hipper, slimmer, younger version of yourself?

Some businesses ventured into second life but that interest may be fading or changing approaches (Reuters, 2007). This seems to be true of Second Life residents in general. In 2008 there were over 13 million residents (Schilling, 2008). But in a given week less than half a million logged in, and in a given month over 700 thousand logged in (Schilling, 2008). Even though some educational institutions have ventured in to Second Life, most educators are  not jumping on the band wagon (Ash, 2011).

Enhance:

So what does it enhance? Creative abilities? Our own images/identities? I went with image and social range of possibilities as most people utilize second to hang out and relax with resident friends (Reuters, 2007).

 

Obsolete:

It is unclear to me what it might replace. It is not a new technology. Virtual reality has been around for a while and many other products incorporating virtual reality (gaming and simulators) have higher quality graphics than Second Life (TED Conferences, LLC, 2008). It doesn’t replace video conferencing or phone calls because you don’t see or hear the real person. I went with reality and face-to-face relations and that is a scary thought as Philip Rosedale, the creator of Second Life, admits (TED Conferences, LLC, 2008).

 

Retrieve/Rekindle:

I find this quarter of the tetrad particularly challenging. A virtual world that you can actually hang out in is new. It has anonymity. Perhaps it recalls masked balls. You go to a party to hang out with people with your identity unknown. But of course that is still in the real world and a mask does not alter other attributes (height, weight, voice, gender, etc.). It is the best I can come up with though.

Reversal:

Facebook has significantly outpaced Second Life as a social networking technology..

Ash, K. (2011, June 15). ‘Second life’ struggles to catch on with educators [Web log message]. Retrieved from: http://www.edweek.org/dd/articles/2011/06/15/03secondlife.h04.html

Hindman, B. (2011, June 23). Second life’s CEO Rod Humble talks anniversaries [Web log message]. Retrieved from: http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/06/23/second-lifes-ceo-rod-humble-talks-anniversaries

Reuters. (2007, Oct. 12). Companies rethinking ‘second life’ strategies. Retrieved from: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,301250,00.html

Schilling, G.B. (2008, May 7). Second life usage demographics [Web log message]. Retrieved from: http://www.bananaverse.com/2008/05/07/second-life-usage-demographics/

TED Conferences, LLC. (2008). Philip Rosedale on second life. Retrieved from: http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/the_inspiration_of_second_life.html